Sijmen's Oscar Experiment

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Comments
Positive ones only


How fun it is to sit and watch the popular vote change moment to moment! I am hooked!

- Blayne
Dec 7, 2000.


Officially, we don't do the experiment anymore. However we did adjust the formula in september 2013 just in case there's somebody out there who wants to try it.

What? I found myself a secret weapon to predict the Oscar nominees: A mathematical and statistical Formula, based on the relation between the pre-Oscar awards and the Oscar nominees in the last 13 years.

How? When you win an award, you receive points: 3 for important critics awards, 1.5 for less important awards, and 4 points if you receive a nomination from the Guilds!

When? We start with the first award of the season in early December 2010 (usually the NBR) and we won't stop until the Oscar Nominations are announced on January 15, 2011



Prediction Rate 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00

The Formula: the complete version
1. Guild Awards
If you receive a Guild nomination, you receive 4 points.
(PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA)

2. Important Critics Awards
If you win an award from them, you receive 3 points.
If you're the first runner-up, or a Golden Globe nominee, you receive 2 points.
If you're a producer, director or a screenwriter from the winning foreign film, you receive 0.8 points
(NBR, LAFCA, NYFCC, Golden Globes, BFCA)

3. Other Awards
If you win an award from them, you receive 1.5 points.
The first runners-up from the NSFC, the Golden Satellite nominees, the Online nominees, the Chicago nominees and the BAFTA nominees receive 1 point.
If you're a producer, director or a screenwriter from the winning foreign film, you receive 0.8 points
(EFA, NSFC, Satellites, OFCS, SFCA, People's Choice, BAFTA, San Diego, Florida, Dallas, and Chicago)

General Rules There are lots of exceptions and special occasions. For a complete insight on how the Formula works, please follow these links:

  • Calendar: Where you can read all the rules on how to get points award per award.

  • General Rules: Here you can read the rules that are not related to an award.

  • The Meryl Streep Rule: A closer look at one of the General Rules.

  • The Kate Winslet Rule: A closer look at how leading and supporting acting categories are determined.

  • The Formula's Most Important Rule: How the Formula predicts the best picture and best director nominees.

  • Related to the Formula's Most Important Rule are The Too Early Front Runner and the Over-Estimated Comedy Rule.

  • Voila! Now you know all the important stuff about the Formula. But there is more. The points won by winning awards and the other general rules do not lead to the final scores (although they are the most important). Read how the final scores are calculated:

  • Best Picture Category
  • Best Director Category
  • The Acting Categories
  • The Writing Category

    I hope it's more or less understandable.