Comments
Positive ones only
How fun it is to sit and watch the popular vote
change moment to moment! I am hooked!
|
- Blayne
Dec 7, 2000. |
|
|
What? |
I found myself a secret weapon to predict the Oscar nominees: a mathematical and statistical formula, based on the relation between pre-Oscar awards and past Oscar nominees over the last 13 years.
|
| How? |
Winning an award gives you points:
3 points for major critics’ awards
1.5 points for smaller awards
4 points if you get a Guild nomination
|
| When? |
We start with the first award of the season (usually the the NBR in early December) and keep going until the Oscar nominations are announced in mid-January.
|
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
The Formula: the complete version
|
1. Guild Awards
|
PGA,
DGA,
SAG,
WGA.
Get 4 points for a nomination from the big leagues (3 points for the Producers Guild). These are the Oscars' best predictors, so every point counts!
|
2. Important Critics and Industry Awards
|
NBR,
LAFCA,
NYFCC,
EFA,
Golden Globes
Win an award? 3 points.
First runner-up or Golden Globe nominee? 2 points.
Best Screenplay winner? 0.8 points for that film in both Best Picture and Best Director categories.
Best Foreign Film Winner? 0.8 points for that film in the Best Picture, Best Director, AND Best Screenplay categories.
|
3. Other Awards
|
AFI,
Critics Choice Awards,
NSFC,
Satellites,
OFCS,
SFCA,
People's Choice,
BAFTA,
San Diego,
Florida,
Dallas,
and Chicago
Win an award? 1.5 points.
First runners-up from NSFC, Satellite nominees, Online nominees, Chicago nominees, BAFTA nominees? 1 point.
Best Screenplay winner? 0.8 points for that film in both Best Picture and Best Director categories.
Best Foreign Film Winner? 0.8 points for that film in the Best Picture, Best Director, AND Best Screenplay categories.
|
| General Rules |
There are plenty of exceptions and special occasions!
For the full scoop, check these links:
Calendar: Read all the rules for points per award.
General Rules: Rules not tied to a specific award.
The Meryl Streep Rule: Winning an Oscar before makes it easier to score bonus points.
The Kate Winslet Rule: How leading vs supporting acting categories are determined.
The Formula's Most Important Rule: How we predict Best Picture and Best Director nominees.
|
Voila! Now you know all the important stuff about the Formula. But there is more. The points won by winning awards and the other general rules do not lead to the final scores (although they are the most important). Read how the final scores are calculated:
Best Picture Category
Best Director Category
The Acting Categories
The Writing Category
I hope it's more or less understandable.
|