Sijmen's Oscar Experiment

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Welcome to The Oscar Experiment!

What? From data to the Dolby Theatre. This Experiment is a rule-based model that tracks awards season in real time - revealing which films, directors, and performances are on track for Oscar nominations.

How? The Oscar Experiment is built on a mathematical model that analyzes the relationship between pre-Oscar awards and past Oscar nominees over the last 13 years.

Each award and nomination is assigned a weighted score — for example:
  • 3 points for major critics’ awards
  • 1.5 points for smaller awards
  • 4 points for Guild nominations

When? Running from early December to nomination morning, the model updates continuously as new results come in — ultimately delivering a full set of predictions that have proven quite accurate in the last 26 years.




Comments
Positive ones only


"How fun it is to sit and watch
the popular vote change moment to moment!
I am hooked!"

- Blayne
Dec 7, 2000.




Find Out More:



CURRENT PREDICTIONS

Last updated: January 22






SCORING SYSTEM

Last updated: March 2026






PAST PREDICTIONS

2025 - 1996