How The Formula Predicts
The 2015 Oscar Nominees

The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02


32.97 pts

Adam McKay
18.93 pts

Leonardo DiCaprio
15.27 pts

Brie Larson
21.60 pts

Supp. Actor
Mark Rylance
16.27 pts

Supp. Actress
Kate Winslet
12.55 pts

Orig. Screenplay
30.07 pts

The Big Short
15.20 pts

Best Picture
The Big Short
Mad Max Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

6. Carol
7. Room
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Sicario
10. Straight Outta Compton

11th and 12th Place: Inside Out, Brooklyn

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.

Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
6th and 7th Place: Todd Haynes, Carol ; Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Places 8 to 10: Lenny Abrahamson, Room ; Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs ; Denis Villeneuve, Sicario

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6th and 7th Place: Michael Keaton, Spotlight ; Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Places 8 to 10: Will Smith, Concussion ; Steve Carell, The Big Short ; Michael Caine, Youth

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
6th and 7th Place: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back ; Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Place 8 to 10: Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van ; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years ; Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
6th and 7th Place: Benicio Del Toro, Sicario ; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy

Places 8 to 10: Jacob Tremblay, Room ; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight ; Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
6th and 7th Place: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina ; Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Places 8 to 10: Jane Fonda, Youth ; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria ; Cynthia Nixon, James White

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Straight Outta Compton
6th and 7th Place: Ex Machina ; Son of Saul

Places 8 to 9: Sicario, Trainwreck

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
The Martian
Steve Jobs
6th and 7th Place: Mad Max: Fury Road ; The Revenant

Places 8 to 10: Brooklyn ; Trumbo ; Anomalisa

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