How The Formula Predicts
The 2015 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Spotlight
32.97 pts


Director
Adam McKay
18.93 pts


Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio
15.27 pts


Actress
Brie Larson
21.60 pts


Supp. Actor
Mark Rylance
16.27 pts


Supp. Actress
Kate Winslet
12.55 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Spotlight
30.07 pts


Adaptation
The Big Short
15.20 pts


Best Picture
The Big Short
Mad Max Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

6. Carol
7. Room
8. Bridge of Spies
--------------------------
9. Sicario
10. Straight Outta Compton

11th and 12th Place: Inside Out, Brooklyn

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
6th and 7th Place: Todd Haynes, Carol ; Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Places 8 to 10: Lenny Abrahamson, Room ; Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs ; Denis Villeneuve, Sicario


Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6th and 7th Place: Michael Keaton,Spotlight ; Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Places 8 to 10: Will Smith, Concussion ; Steve Carell, The Big Short ; Michael Caine, Youth


Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
6th and 7th Place: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back ; Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Place 8 to 10: Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van ; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years ; Carey Mulligan, Suffragette


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
6th and 7th Place: Benicio Del Toro, Sicario ; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy

Places 8 to 10: Jacob Tremblay, Room ; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight ; Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina


Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
6th and 7th Place: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina ; Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Places 8 to 10: Jane Fonda, Youth ; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria ; Cynthia Nixon, James White


Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Straight Outta Compton
Spotlight
6th and 7th Place: Ex Machina ; Son of Saul

Places 8 to 9: Sicario, Trainwreck


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs
6th and 7th Place: Mad Max: Fury Road ; The Revenant

Places 8 to 10: Brooklyn ; Trumbo ; Anomalisa


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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