How The Formula Predicts
The 2015 Oscar Nominees


21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Spotlight
56.93 pts


Director
George Miller
23.42 pts


Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio
16.38 pts


Actress
Brie Larson
21.60 pts


Supp. Actor
Mark Rylance
16.27 pts


Supp. Actress
Kate Winslet
12.55 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Spotlight
30.07 pts


Adaptation
The Big Short
15.20 pts


Best Picture
The Big Short
Mad Max Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

6. Room
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Carol
--------------------------
9. Straight Outta Compton
10. Sicario

11th and 12th Place: Inside Out, Brooklyn

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
6th and 7th Place: Lenny Abrahamson, Room ; Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Places 8 to 10: Todd Haynes, Carol ; Denis Villeneuve, Sicario ; F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton


Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6th and 7th Place: Michael Keaton, Spotlight ; Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Places 8 to 10: Steve Carell, The Big Short ; Will Smith, Concussion ; Michael Caine, Youth


Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
6th and 7th Place (TIE): Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years ; Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back ; Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Place 9 to 10: Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van ; Amy Schumer, Trainwreck


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
6th and 7th Place: Michael Shannon, 99 Homes ; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Places 8 to 10: Jacob Tremblay, Room ; Tom Hardy, The Revenant ; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy


Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
6th and 7th Place: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina ; Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Places 8 to 10: Jane Fonda, Youth ; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria ; Cynthia Nixon, James White


Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Straight Outta Compton
Spotlight
6th and 7th Place: Ex Machina ; Son of Saul

Places 8 to 9: Sicario, Trainwreck


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs
6th and 7th Place: Mad Max: Fury Road ; The Revenant

Places 8 to 10: Brooklyn ; Trumbo ; Anomalisa


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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