How The Formula Predicts
The 2013 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
12 Years a Slave
30.48 pts


Director
Steve McQueen
33.41 pts


Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor
20.10 pts


Actress
Cate Blanchett
28.93 pts


Supp. Actor
Jared Leto
25.93 pts


Supp. Actress
Lupita Nyong'o
23.82 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Her
24.84 pts


Adaptation
12 Years a Slave
23.04 pts


Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
12 Years a Slave

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Nebraska
9. Dallas Buyers Club
--------------------------
10. Saving Mr. Banks

11th and 12th Place: Philomena, Blue Jasmine

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
6th and 7th Place: Spike Jonze, Her ; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Places 8 to 10: Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis ; Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine ; Jean-Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club


Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
6th and 7th Place: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis ; Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Places 8 to 10: Forest Whitaker, The Butler; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street ; Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom


Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
6th and 7th Place: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County ; Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Places 8 to 10: Kate Winslet, Labor Day ; Julie Delpy, Before Midnight ; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said


Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
6th and 7th Place: James Gandolfini, Enough Said ; James Franco, Spring Breakers

Place 8: Will Forte, Nebraska

9th place was a tie between seven performances, too many to list here. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) wasn't one of them.


Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberst, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
6th and 7th Place: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine ; Lea Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color

Places 8 to 10: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station ; Scarlett Johansson, Her ; Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now


Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
6th and 7th Place: Blue Jasmine ; Dallas Buyers Club

Place 8: Saving Mr. Banks

9th place was a three-way tie between The Hunt, The Past and The Great Beauty


Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Blue Is the Warmest Color
Captain Phillips
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
6th and 7th Place (TIE): Philomena ; August: Oscage County ; Lone Survivor

Places 9 to 10: The Wind Rises ; Short Term 12


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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