How The Formula Predicts
The 2013 Oscar Nominees


21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
12 Years a Slave
52.42 pts


Director
Steve McQueen
34.21 pts


Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor
21.21 pts


Actress
Cate Blanchett
28.93 pts


Supp. Actor
Jared Leto
25.93 pts


Supp. Actress
Lupita Nyong'o
24.93 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Her
24.84 pts


Adaptation
12 Years a Slave
23.04 pts


Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
12 Years a Slave

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Nebraska
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Saving Mr. Banks
--------------------------
10. Inside Llewyn Davis

11th and 12th Place: Philomena, Fruitvale Station

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
6th and 7th Place: Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips ; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Places 8 to 10: Jean-Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club ; John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks ; Stephen Frears, Philomena


Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
6th and 7th Place: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis ; Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Places 8 to 10: Forest Whitaker, The Butler; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street ; Joaquin Phoenix, Her


Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
6th and 7th Place: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County ; Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Places 8 to 10: Julie Delpy, Before Midnight ; Kate Winslet, Labor Day ; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said


Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
6th and 7th Place: James Franco, Spring Breakers ; James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Place 8: Will Forte, Nebraska

9th place was a tie between seven performances, too many to list here. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) wasn't one of them.


Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberst, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
6th and 7th Place: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine ; Lea Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color

Places 8 to 10: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station ; Scarlett Johansson, Her ; Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now


Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
6th and 7th Place: Blue Jasmine ; Dallas Buyers Club

Place 8: Saving Mr. Banks

9th place was a three-way tie between The Hunt, The Past and The Great Beauty


Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Blue Is the Warmest Color
Captain Phillips
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
6th and 7th Place (TIE): Philomena ; August: Oscage County ; Lone Survivor

Places 9 to 10: The Wind Rises ; Short Term 12


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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