How The Formula Predicts
The 2014 Oscar Nominees

The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02


33.29 pts

Richard Linklater
37.02 pts

Michael Keaton
22.60 pts

Julianne Moore
19.99 pts

Supp. Actor
J.K. Simmons
25.82 pts

Supp. Actress
Patricia Arquette
26.32 pts

Orig. Screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel
24.88 pts

Gone Girl
19.24 pts

Best Picture
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game

6. Nightcrawler
7. The Theory of Everything
8. American Sniper
9. Gone Girl
10. Foxcatcher

11th and 12th Place: Selma, Unbroken

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
6th and 7th Place: James Marsh, The Theory of Everything ; David Fincher, Gone Girl

Places 8 to 10: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash ; Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler ; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
6th and 7th Place: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel ; David Oyelowo, Selma

Places 8 to 10: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner ; Tom Hardy, Locke ; Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
6th and 7th Place: Amy Adams, Big Eyes ; Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Place 8 (Tie): Helen Mirren, The Hundred Foot Journey ; Emily Blunt, Into the Woods ; Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
6th and 7th Place: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice ; Andy Serkis, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Note: Only 7 contenders (which is pretty weird).

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
6th and 7th Place: Naomi Watts, St. Vincent ; Agata Kulesza, Ida

Places 8 to 10: Rene Russo, Nightcrawler ; Laura Dern, Wild ; Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

Best Original Screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The LEGO Movie
6th and 7th Place: Foxcatcher ; Force Majeur

Places 8 to 10: Selma ; Ida ; Two Days, One Night

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
6th and 7th Place: The Theory of Everything ; Wild

Places 8 to 10: Guardians of the Galaxy ; Under the Skin ; Snowpiercer

See the calculations (in Excel!)

How To Read The Excell Pages: