How The Formula Predicts
The 2014 Oscar Nominees


21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Boyhood
56.89 pts


Director
Richard Linklater
37.02 pts


Actor
Michael Keaton
23.71 pts


Actress
Julianne Moore
19.99 pts


Supp. Actor
J.K. Simmons
25.82 pts


Supp. Actress
Patricia Arquette
27.43 pts


Orig. Screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel
24.88 pts


Adaptation
Gone Girl
19.24 pts


Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

6. American Sniper
7. Whiplash
8. Gone Girl
--------------------------
9. Foxcatcher
10. Selma

11th and 12th Place: Nightcrawler, Ida

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
6th and 7th Place: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper ; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Places 8 to 10: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash ; James Marsh, The Theory of Everything ; Ava DuVernay, Selma


Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
6th and 7th Place: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel ; David Oyelowo, Selma

Places 8 to 10: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper ; Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner ; Tom Hardy, Locke


Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
6th and 7th Place: Amy Adams, Big Eyes ; Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Place 8 to 9: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods ; Anne Dorval, Mommy

10th place was a tie between Scarlett Johanson, Under the Skin and Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle


Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
6th and 7th Place: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice ; Andy Serkis, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Note: Only 7 contenders (which is pretty weird).


Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
6th and 7th Place: Naomi Watts, St. Vincent ; Sienna Miller, American Sniper

Places 8 to 9: Agata Kulesza, Ida ; Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

10th place was a tie between Laura Dern, Wild and Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer


Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The LEGO Movie
Nightcrawler
6th and 7th Place: Foxcatcher ; Force Majeur

Places 8 to 10: Selma ; Ida ; Two Days, One Night


Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Whiplash
6th and 7th Place: The Theory of Everything ; Wild

Places 8 to 10: Guardians of the Galaxy ; Under the Skin ; Snowpiercer


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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