How The Formula Predicts
The 2016 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Moonlight
34.92 pts


Director
Barry Jenkins
40.71 pts


Actor
Casey Affleck
32.65 pts


Actress
Natalie Portman
18.49 pts


Supp. Actor
Mahershala Ali
28.04 pts


Supp. Actress
Michelle Williams
20.10 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea
34.44 pts


Adaptation
Moonlight
24.85 pts


Best Picture
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

6. Fences
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Hidden Figures
9. Lion
--------------------------
10. Silence

11th and 12th Place: Jackie, Deadpool

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Garth Davis, Lion
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
6th and 7th Place: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge ; David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Places 8 to 10: Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals ; Denzel Washington, Fences ; Paul Verhoeven, Elle


Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
6th and 7th Place: Joel Edgerton, Loving ; Jake Gylenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Places 8 to 10: Colin Farrell, The Lobster ; Adam Driver, Paterson ; Tom Hanks, Sully


Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6th and 7th Place: Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train ; Ruth Negga, Loving

Place 8 to 10: Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures ; Annette Bening, 20th Century Woman ; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane


Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
6th and 7th Place: Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals ; Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins

Places 8 to 10: Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight ; Ben Foster, Hell or High Water ; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals


Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
6th and 7th Place: Lily Gladstone, Certain Women ; Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

Place 8 (TIE): Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky ; Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake

Note: Only 9 contenders.


Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
6th and 7th Place: I, Daniel Blake ; Toni Erdmann

Places 8 to 9: The Salesman ; Captain Fantastic

Note: Only 9 contenders.


Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures
Nocturnal Animals
Moonlight
6th and 7th Place: Hacksaw Ridge ; Fences ;

Places 8 to 10: The Handmaiden ; Silence ; Love & Friendship


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