How The Formula Predicts
The 2016 Oscar Nominees


22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Moonlight
60.38 pts


Director
Barry Jenkins
40.71 pts


Actor
Casey Affleck
33.76 pts


Actress
Natalie Portman
18.49 pts


Supp. Actor
Mahershala Ali
29.15 pts


Supp. Actress
Michelle Williams
22.32 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea
34.44 pts


Adaptation
Moonlight
24.85 pts


Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Hidden Figures
8. Lion
9. Hell or High Water
--------------------------
10. The Handmaiden

11th and 12th Place: Deadpool, Jackie

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
6th and 7th Place: Park Chan-wook, The Handmaiden ; Garth Davis, Lion

Places 8 to 10: Denzel Washington, Fences ; Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures ; Pablo Larrain, Jacky


Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
6th and 7th Place: Joel Edgerton, Loving ; Jake Gylenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Places 8 to 10: Colin Farrell, The Lobster ; Adam Driver, Paterson ; Tom Hanks, Sully


Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6th and 7th Place: Ruth Negga, Loving ; Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train

Place 8 to 10: Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures ; Annette Bening, 20th Century Woman ; Rebecca Hall, Christine


Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
6th and 7th Place: Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals ; Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Places 8 to 10: Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins ; Ben Foster, Hell or High Water ; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals


Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
6th and 7th Place: Lily Gladstone, Certain Women ; Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

Place 8 to 9: Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake ; Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Note: Only 9 contenders.


Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
6th and 7th Place: I, Daniel Blake ; Toni Erdmann

Places 8 to 9: The Salesman ; Captain Fantastic

Note: Only 9 contenders.


Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures
Nocturnal Animals
Moonlight
6th and 7th Place: Hacksaw Ridge ; Fences ;

Places 8 to 10: The Handmaiden ; Silence ; Love & Friendship


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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