How The Formula Predicts
The 2016 Oscar Nominees

The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02


60.38 pts

Barry Jenkins
40.71 pts

Casey Affleck
32.65 pts

Natalie Portman
18.49 pts

Supp. Actor
Mahershala Ali
28.04 pts

Supp. Actress
Michelle Williams
20.10 pts

Orig. Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea
34.44 pts

24.85 pts

Best Picture
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea

6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Hidden Figures
8. Lion
9. Hell or High Water
10. The Handmaiden

11th and 12th Place: Deadpool, Jackie

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.

Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
6th and 7th Place: Park Chan-wook, The Handmaiden ; Garth Davis, Lion

Places 8 to 10: Denzel Washington, Fences ; Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures ; Pablo Larrain, Jacky

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
6th and 7th Place: Joel Edgerton, Loving ; Jake Gylenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Places 8 to 10: Colin Farrell, The Lobster ; Adam Driver, Paterson ; Tom Hanks, Sully

Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6th and 7th Place: Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train ; Ruth Negga, Loving

Place 8 to 10: Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures ; Annette Bening, 20th Century Woman ; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
6th and 7th Place: Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals ; Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins

Places 8 to 10: Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight ; Ben Foster, Hell or High Water ; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
6th and 7th Place: Lily Gladstone, Certain Women ; Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

Place 8 (TIE): Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky ; Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake

Note: Only 9 contenders.

Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
6th and 7th Place: I, Daniel Blake ; Toni Erdmann

Places 8 to 9: The Salesman ; Captain Fantastic

Note: Only 9 contenders.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Hidden Figures
Nocturnal Animals
6th and 7th Place: Hacksaw Ridge ; Fences ;

Places 8 to 10: The Handmaiden ; Silence ; Love & Friendship

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