How The Formula Predicts
The 2020 Oscar Nominees
(in the midst of the most unusual award season ever)


23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Nomadland
54.41 pts


Director
Chloe Zhao
44.31 pts


Actor
Chadwick Boseman
21.10 pts


Actress
Carey Mulligan
23.71 pts


Supp. Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen
15.38 pts


Supp. Actress
Yuh-Jung Youn
20.10 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Minari
22.80 pts


Adaptation
Nomadland
22.98 pts


Best Picture
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

6. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
7. Sound of Metal
8. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
9. Da 5 Bloods
10. The Father

11th and 12th Place: Soul, One Night in Miami

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6th and 7th Place: George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom ; Florian Zeller, The Father

Places 8 to 10: Darius Marder, Sound of Metal ; Jason Woliner, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm ; Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah


Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
6th and 7th Place: Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round ; Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Places 8 to 10: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods ; Adarsh Gourav, The White Tiger ; Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm


Best Actress
Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
6th Place (tie): Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday ; Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Places 8 to 9: Wunmi Mosaku, His House ; Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

10th place was a tie between Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot and Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead


Best Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
6th and 7th Place: David Strathairn, Nomadland ; Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Places 8 to 10: Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom ; Alan Kim, Minari ; Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman


Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Helena Zengel, News of the World
6th and 7th Place: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy ; Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

8th place was a five way tie.


Best Original Screenplay
Mank
Minari
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6th and 7th Place: Da 5 Bloods ; Sound of Metal

Places 8 to 10: Soul ; Palm Springs ; Another Round


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
6th and 7th Place: First Cow ; The White Tiger

Places 8 to 10: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm ; I'm Thinking of Ending Things ; The Mauritanian


See the calculations (in Excel!)


How To Read The Excell Pages: