How The Formula Predicts
The 2018 Oscar Nominees


23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Roma
58.99 pts


Director
Alfonso Cuaron
46.83 pts


Actor
Christian Bale
16.88 pts


Actress
Olivia Colman
18.49 pts


Supp. Actor
Richard E. Grant
20.10 pts


Supp. Actress
Regina King
23.10 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Roma
27.73 pts


Adaptation
If Beale Street Could Talk
18.79 pts


Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born

6. Vice
7. Black Panther
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
--------------------------
9. Bohemian Rhapsody
10. Crazy Rich Asians

11th and 12th Place: The Quiet Place, Eighth Grade

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Adam Mckay, Vice
6th and 7th Place: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite ; Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Places 8 to 10: Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War ; Bryan Singer, Bohemian Rhapsody ; Debra Granik, Leave No Trace


Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
6th and 7th Place: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman ; Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Places 8 to 10: Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really There ; Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased ; Steve Coogan, Stan & Ollie


Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
6th and 7th Place: Viola Davis, Widows ; Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Place 8 to 10: Toni Collette, Hereditary ; Nicole Kidman, Destroyer ; Regina Hall, Support the Girls


Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
6th and 7th Place: Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy ; Steven Yeun, Burning

Places 8 to 10: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther ; Hugh Grant, Paddington 2 ; Russell Crowe, Boy Erased


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Claire Foy, First Man
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
6th and 7th Place: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place ; Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

Places 8 to 10: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased ; Elizabeth Debicki, Widows ; Sakura Ando, Shoplifters


Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
6th and 7th Place: Vice ; Cold War

Places 8 to 10: A Quiet Place ; Bohemian Rhapsody ; Shoplifters


Best Adapted Screenplay
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
6th and 7th Place: The Death of Stalin ; Crazy Rich Asians

Places 8 to 10: First Man ; Leave No Trace ; Burning


See the calculations (in Excel!)


How To Read The Excell Pages: