How The Formula Predicts
The 2017 Oscar Nominees


23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Lady Bird
49.12 pts


Director
Guillermo del Toro
31.12 pts


Actor
Timothee Chalamet
18.88 pts


Actress (TIE)
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
18.49 pts


Supp. Actor
Sam Rockwell
25.54 pts


Supp. Actress
Laurie Metcalf
25.93 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Get Out
26.02 pts


Adaptation
Call Me By Your Name
20.66 pts


Best Picture
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6. Call Me By Your Name
7. The Post
8. The Big Sick
9. I, Tonya
---------------------------
10. Darkest Hour

11th and 12th Place: The Disaster Artist, Wonder Woman

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6th and 7th Place: Steven Spielberg, The Post ; Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name

Places 8 to 10: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread ; Michael Showalter, The Big Sick ; Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya


Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
6th and 7th Place: Tom Hanks, The Post ; Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Places 8 to 10: Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes ; Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool ; Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman


Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
6th and 7th Place: Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul ; Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

Place 8 to 10: Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool ; Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World ; Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes


Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6th and 7th Place: Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name ; Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

Places 8 to 10: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name ; Mark Rylance, Dunkirk ; Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water


Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
6th and 7th Place: Hong Chau, Downsizing ; Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip

Place 8: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

9th place was a 3-way tie between Melissa Leo, Novitiate, Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime and Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour


Best Original Screenplay
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6th and 7th Place: Phantom Thread ; The Post

Places 8 to 10: The Big Sick ; I, Tonya ; The Florida Project


Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
6th and 7th Place: Wonder Woman ; Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

Place 8: First They Killed My Father

9th place was a 5-way tie


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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