How The Formula Predicts
The 2017 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Lady Bird
29.51 pts


Director
Guillermo del Toro
31.12 pts


Actor
Timothee Chalamet
18.88 pts


Actress (TIE)
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
17.38 pts


Supp. Actor
Sam Rockwell
24.43 pts


Supp. Actress
Laurie Metcalf
24.82 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Get Out
26.02 pts


Adaptation
Call Me By Your Name
20.66 pts


Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. The Post
8. The Big Sick
9. The Florida Project
10. I, Tonya

11th and 12th Place: Darkest Hour, The Disaster Artist

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6th and 7th Place: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name ; Steven Spielberg, The Post

Places 8 to 10: Michael Showalter, The Big Sick ; Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya ; Sean Baker, The Florida Project


Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
6th and 7th Place: Tom Hanks, The Post ; Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Places 8 & 9: Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes ; Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

10th place was a tie between Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger and Jeremy Renner, Wind River


Best Actress
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
6th and 7th Place (TIE): Meryl Streep, The Post ; Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool ; Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

Place 9 to 10: Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World ; Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes


Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6th and 7th Place: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World ; Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

Place 8: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

9th place was a 4-way tie between Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected), Mark Rylance, Dunkirk, Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water & Patrick Stewart, Logan


Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
6th and 7th Place: Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water ; Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip

Place 8: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

9th place was a 3-way tie between Melissa Leo, Novitiate, Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime and Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour


Best Original Screenplay
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6th and 7th Place: Phantom Thread ; The Post

Places 8 to 10: The Big Sick ; I, Tonya ; The Florida Project


Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
6th and 7th Place: Wonder Woman ; Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

Place 8: First They Killed My Father

9th place was a 5-way tie between too many screenplays to list here


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