How The Formula Predicts
The 2019 Oscar Nominees


23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Parasite
57.17 pts


Director
Bong Joon Ho
39.42 pts


Actor
Adam Driver
21.21 pts


Actress
Renee Zellweger
18.38 pts


Supp. Actor
Brad Pitt
26.43 pts


Supp. Actress
Laura Dern
18.49 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Parasite
35.71 pts


Adaptation
The Irishman
26.60 pts


Best Picture
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Parasite

6. Marriage Story
7. Joker
8. Ford v Ferrari
9. Little Women
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10. Uncut Gems

11th and 12th Place: Knives Out, The Two Popes

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
6th and 7th Place: Todd Phillips, Joker ; Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Places 8 to 10: Benny & Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems ; James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari ; Celine Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire


Best Actor
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
6th and 7th Place: Taron Egerton, Rocketman ; Robert DeNiro, The Irishman

Places 8 to 10: Jonathan Price, The Two Popes ; Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems ; Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit


Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
6th and 7th Place: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women ; Awkwafina, The Farewell

Place 8 to 10: Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose ; Ana De Armas, Knives Out ; Mary Kay Place, Diane


Best Supporting Actor
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Song Kang Ho, Parasite
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
6th and 7th Place: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood ; Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy

Places 8 to 10: Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse ; Shia Labeouf, Honey Boy ; Wendell Pierce, Burning Cane


Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell*
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
6th and 7th Place: Nicole Kidman, Bombshell* ; Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Places 8 to 10: Zhao Shushen, The Farewell ; Cho Ye Jeong, Parasite ; Annette Bening, The Report

* (Kathy Bates and Nicole Kidman had the same score, so I had to use the Tie Breaker)


Best Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Parasite
6th and 7th Place: Uncut Gems ; Booksmart

Places 8 to 10: Ford v Ferrari ; The Farewell ; Pain & Glory


Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
6th and 7th Place: The Two Popes ; Hustlers

Places 8 to 10: Luce ; Dark Waters ; Motherless Brooklyn


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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