How The Formula Predicts
The 2025 Oscar Nominees


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FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
One Battle After Another
63.76 pts


Director
Paul Thomas Anderson
38.31 pts


Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio
16.88 pts


Actress
Rose Byrne
20.97 pts


Supp. Actor
Benicio Del Toro
24.32 pts


Supp. Actress
Teyana Taylor,
22.10 pts


Orig. Screenplay
It Was Just An Accident
18.93 pts


Adaptation
One Battle After Another
27.30 pts


Best Picture
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

11th to 13th Place: Weapons ; No Other Choice ; F1


Best Director
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
6th and 7th Place: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value ; Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Places 8 to 10: Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent ; Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia ; Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice


Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
6th and 7th Place (TIE): Jesse Plemons, Bugonia ; Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein ; Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Places 9 and 10 (TIE): George Clooney, Jay Kelly ; Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere ; Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine


Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Chase Infinity, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
6th and 7th Place: Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love ; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Places 8 to 10: Eva Victor, Sorry Baby ; Tessa Thompson, Hedda ; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good


Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
6th and 7th Place: Miles Caton, Sinners ; Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Places 8 to 9: Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly ; Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

(Only 9 contender in this catergory)


Best Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
6th and 7th Place: Odessa A'Zion, Marty Supreme ; Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Places 8 to 10: Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners ; Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value ; Nina Hoss, Hedda


Best Original Screenplay
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
6th and 7th Place: Weapons ; Sorry Baby

Places 8 to 10: F1 ; Blue Moon ; Jay Kelly


Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
6th and 7th Place: No Other Choice ; Wake Up Dead Man

(Only 7 contender in this catergory)

Note: Both the BAFTA and WGA nominations are excluded this year, since they are announced after the Oscar nominations - making the screenplay predictions slightly trickier.


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