How The Formula Predicts
The 2012 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Argo
29.64 pts


Director
Ben Affleck
30.83 pts


Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis
24.82 pts


Actress
Jessica Chastain
17.88 pts


Supp. Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman
16.88 pts


Supp. Actress
Sally Field
17.38 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty
21.58 pts


Adaptation
Argo
23.45 pts


Best Picture
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

6. Life of Pi
7. Moonrise Kingdom
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. The Master
--------------------------
10. Django Unchained

11th and 12th Place: Amour, Skyfall

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
6th and 7th Place: Michael Haneke, Amour ; Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Places 8 to 10: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables ; Quentin Tarrantino, Django Unchained ; Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

Nominee Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild stranded at 13th place(!)


Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
6th and 7th Place: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables ; Jack Black, Bernie

Places 8 to 10: Richard Gere, Arbitrage ; Dennis Lavant, Holy Motors ; Ben Affleck, Argo


Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible *
6th and 7th Place: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock * ; Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea

Places 8 to 9: Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz ; Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

10th place was a tie between Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina and Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson

Naomi Watts and Helen Mirren had the same score, so the formula used the Tie Breaker to determine the fifth place.


Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
6th & 7th Place: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained ; Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Places 8 to 9: Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild ; Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

10th place was a tie between John Goodman, Flight and Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
6th and 7th Place: Judi Dench, Skyfall ; Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Places 8 to 10: Ann Dowd, Compliance ; Samantha Barks, Les Miserables ; Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Nominee Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook was not ranked(!)


Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Looper
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
6th and 7th Place: Django Unchained ; Flight

Places 8 to 10: The Untouchables ; Holy Motors ; The Cabin in the Woods

Note: if the Oscar Nominations would have been announced after the ceremonies of the Golden Globes and the Crictics Choice Awards (as they always were up to this point), the Formula would have predicted Django Unchained instead of Looper. Just saying...


Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
6th and 7th Place: Les Miserables ; The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Place 8: Skyfall

9th place was a 4-way tie between Anna Karenina, Cosmopolis, Cloud Atlas and The Sessions.


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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