How The Formula Predicts
The 2012 Oscar Nominees


20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Argo
51.44 pts


Director
Kathryn Bigelow
36.37 pts


Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis
25.93 pts


Actress
Jessica Chastain
18.99 pts


Supp. Actor
Tommy Lee Jones
17.60 pts


Supp. Actress
Sally Field
19.60 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty
21.58 pts


Adaptation
Argo
23.45 pts


Best Picture
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

6. Silver Linings Playbook
7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
8. The Master
9. Django Unchained
--------------------------
10. Amour

11th and 12th Place: Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees.


Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
6th and 7th Place: Michael Haneke, Amour ; Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Places 8 to 10: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables ; Quentin Tarrantino, Django Unchained ; Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild


Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
6th and 7th Place: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables ; Ben Affleck, Argo

Places 8 to 10: Jack Black, Bernie ; Dennis Lavant, Holy Motors ; Richard Gere, Arbitrage


Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible *
6th and 7th Place: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock * ; Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea

Places 8 to 10: Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild ; Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ; Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen


Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
6th & 7th Place: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained ; Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Places 8 to 9: Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables ; Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild ; Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
6th and 7th Place: Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ; Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Places 8 to 10: Samantha Barks, Les Miserables ; Ann Dowd, Compliance ; Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Nominee Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook was not ranked(!)


Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Looper
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
6th and 7th Place: Django Unchained ; Flight

Places 8 to 10: The Untouchables ; Holy Motors ; The Cabin in the Woods

Note: if the Oscar Nominations would have been announced after the ceremonies of the Golden Globes and the Crictics Choice Awards (as they always were up to this point), the Formula would have predicted Django Unchained instead of Looper. Just saying...


Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
6th and 7th Place: Les Miserables ; The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Place 8: Skyfall

9th place was a 4-way tie between Anna Karenina, Cosmopolis, Cloud Atlas and The Sessions.


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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