How The Formula Predicts
The 2011 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
The Descendants
31.85 pts


Director
Alexander Payne
32.41 pts


Actor
George Clooney
23.10 pts


Actress
Meryl Streep
18.38 pts


Supp. Actor
Christopher Plummer
32.04 pts


Supp. Actress
Octavia Spencer
14.66 pts


Orig. Screenplay
The Artist
20.32 pts


Adaptation
The Descendants
30.22 pts


Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris

6. Moneyball
7. The Tree of Life
8. War Horse
9. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
--------------------------
10. Drive

11th and 12th Place: Bridesmaids, The Ides of March

Note: The Formula doesn't predict the number of Best Picture Nominees. Nominee Extremely Loud & Incredible Close was not ranked(!).


Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
6th and 7th Place: David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ; Tate Taylor, The Help

Places 8 to 10: Paul Feig, Bridesmaids ; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life ; Asghar Farhadi, A Separation


Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
6th and 7th Place: Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar ;

Places 8 to 10: Demian Bichir, A Better Life ; Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris ; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March


Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
6th and 7th Place: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia

Places 8 to 9: Charlize Theron, Young Adult ; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

10th place was a tie between Vera Farmiga, Higher Ground and Anna Paquin, Margaret


Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
6th & 7th Place: Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method ; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar

Places 8 to 9: Patton Oswalt, Young Adult ; Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life

10th place was a tie between seven performances, too many to list here

Nominee Max Von Sydow was not mentioned by the Formula


Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist*
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
6th and 7th Place: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids* ; Carey Mulligan, Shame

Places 8 to 10: Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life ; Judy Greer, The Descendants ; Rachel McAdams, Midnight in Paris

* Berenice Bejo had the same score as Melissa McCarthy, so the formula used the Tie Breaker to determine the fifth place.


Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
6th and 7th Place: The Tree of Life ; Win Win

Places 8 to 10: Young Adult ; Martha Marcy May Marlene ; The Guard

Nominee Margin Call was not mentioned by the Formula


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
6th and 7th Place: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy ; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Places 8 to 10: War Horse ; Drive ; The Skin I Live In


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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