How The Formula Predicts
The 2010 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
The Social Network
41.82 pts


Director
David Fincher
60.53 pts


Actor
Colin Firth
28.82 pts


Actress
Natalie Portman
22.60 pts


Supp. Actor
Christian Bale
23.60 pts


Supp. Actress
Melissa Leo
20.88 pts


Orig. Screenplay
The King's Speech
22.49 pts


Adaptation
The Social Network
44.47 pts


Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

6. The Kids Are All Right
7. True Grit
8. Winter's Bone
9. 127 Hours
10. Toy Story 3

11th and 12th Place: The Town, The Ghost Writer


Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
6th and 7th Place: Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right ; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Places 8 to 10: Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit ; Ben Affleck, The Town ; Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer


Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
6th and 7th Place: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine ; Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Places 8 to 9: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter ; Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs

10th place was a tie between: Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception, Michael Douglas, Solitary Man and Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version


Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
6th and 7th Place: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right ; Hilary Swank, Conviction

Places 8 to 10: Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice ; Lesley Manville, Another Year ; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
6th & 7th Place: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network ; Michael Douglas, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps

Number 8: Armie Hammer, The Social Network

9th place was a tie between: Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer, Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men, Sean Penn, Fair Game and Pete Postlethwaite, The Town


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
6th and 7th Place: Mila Kunis, Black Swan ; Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer

Number 8: Barbara Hershey, Black Swan

9th place was a tie between: Marion Cotillard, Inception, Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy, Ann Guilbert, Please Give, Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version, Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet, Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham, Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy and Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole


Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
6th and 7th Place: Please Give ; Buried

Places 8 to 10: Four Lions ; I Am Love ; Biutiful

Nominee Another Year was not mentioned by the formula


Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
6th and 7th Place: Winter's Bone ; The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Places 8 to 10: I Love You, Philip Morris ; Scott Pilgrim vs. the World ; The Ghost Writer


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