How The Formula Predicts
The 2008 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
59.74 pts


Director
Danny Boyle
49.68 pts


Actor
Sean Penn
26.82 pts


Actress
Anne Hathaway
19.38 pts


Supp. Actor
Heath Ledger
26.43 pts


Supp. Actress
Penelope Cruz
19.38 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Milk
17.27 pts


Adaptation
Slumdog Millionaire
34.33 pts


Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

6th and 7th Place: WALL-E, The Wrestler

Places 8 to 10: The Reader, Doubt, Happy-Go-Lucky


Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
6th and 7th Place: Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky ; Stephen Daldry, The Reader

Places 8 to 10: John Patrick Shanley, Doubt ; Andrew Stanton, WALL-E ; Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road


Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
6th and 7th Place: Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino ; Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

Places 8 to 10: Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges ; Colin Farrel, In Bruges ; Benicio Del Toro, Che


Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
6th and 7th Place: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky ; Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Places 8 to 10: Kristin Scott Thomas, I ve Loved You So Long ; Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey ; Michelle Williams, Wendy & Lucy


Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
6th Place (TIE): Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder ; Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess

Places 8 to 9: Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky ; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

10th place was a tie between: Kevin Bacon, Frost/Nixon and James Franco, Milk

Since Dev Platel had the same score as Tom Cruise and Ralph Fiennes, the formula used the Tie Breaker to determine the fifth place.


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
6th and 7th Place: Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire ; Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married

8th Place: Hanna Schygulla, The Edge of Heaven

9th place was a seven-way tie between: Penelope Cruz, Elegy ; Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth ; Angelica Huston, Choke ; Sophie Okonedo, The Secret Life of Bees ; Tilda Swinton, Burn After Reading and Emma Thompson, Brideshead Revisited


Best Original Screenplay
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
The Visitor
WALL-E
The Wrestler
6th and 7th Place: Burn After Reading ; Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Places 8 to 10: Synecdoche, New York ; Rachel Getting Married ; In Bruges

Nominee Frozen River stranded on 13th place.


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
6th and 7th Place: The Reader ; Revolutionary Road

Places 8 to 10: Gomorrah ; Elegy ; Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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