How The Formula Predicted
The 2005 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Brokeback Mountain
60.13 pts


Director
Ang Lee
54.10 pts


Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman
32.54 pts


Actress
Reese Witherspoon
19.99 pts


Supp. Actor
Matt Dillon
12.05 pts


Supp. Actress
Amy Adams
17.38 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Crash
24.49 pts


Adaptation
Brokeback Mountain
36.90 pts


Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Munich

6th and 7th Place: Walk the Line , A History of Violence

Places 9 and 10: The Constant Gardener, King Kong, Memoirs of a Geisha


Best Director
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Paul Haggis, Crash
George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck
Steven Spielberg, Munich
6th and 7th Place: David Cronenberg, A History of Violence ; James Mangold, Walk the Line

Places 8 to 10: Fernando Mereilles, The Constant Gardener ; Peter Jackson, King Kong ; Rob Marshall, Memoirs of a Geisha


Best Actor
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathaim, Good Night and Good Luck
6th and 7th Place: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow ; Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener

Places 8 to 10: Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale ; Cillian Murphy, Breakfast on Pluto ; Tommy Lee Jones, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada


Best Actress
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha
6th and 7th Place: Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice ; Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger

Places 8 to 9: Naomi Watts, King Kong ; Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof

10th place was a tie between: Julian Moore, The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio and Toni Colette, In Her Shoes


Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence
6th and 7th Place: Don Cheadle, Crash ; Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents

Places 8 to 10: Frank Langella, Good Night and Good Luck ; Will Farell, The Producers ; Mickey Rourke, Sin City


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
6th and 7th Place: Maria Bello, A History of Violence ; Shirley MacLaine, In her Shoes

Places 8 to 10: Scarlett Johannsson, Match Point ; Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha ; Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale ;


Best Original Screenplay
Cinderella Man
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana
6th and 7th Place: The 40-Year Old Virgin ; Caché

Places 8 to 10: Match Point ; Paradise Now ; Kung Fu Hustle


Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich
6th and 7th Place: Walk the Line ; Memoirs of a Geisha

Places 8 to 10: Shopgirl ; Pride and Prejudice ; Jarhead


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