How The Formula Predicted
The 1996 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
The English Patient
34.73 pts


Director
Anthony Minghella
29.04 pts


Actor
Geoffrey Rush
19.66 pts


Actress
Frances McDormand
24.60 pts


Supp. Actor
Cuba Gooding Jr.
12.44 pts


Supp. Actress
Courtney Love
10.55 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Fargo
28.95 pts


Adaptation
The English Patient
17.00 pts


Best Picture
The English Patient
Fargo
The People vs. Larry Flint
Secrets and Lies
Shine
6th and 7th Place: Jerry Maguire ; The Birdcage

Places 8 to 10: Evita ; Breaking the Waves ; Hamlet


Best Director
Anthony Minghella, The English Patient
Joel Coen, Fargo
Milos Forman, The People vs. Larry Flint
Mike Leigh, Secrets and Lies
Scott Hicks, Shine
6th and 7th Place: Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire ; Mike Nichols, The Birdcage

Places 8 to 10: Lars Von Trier, Breaking the Waves ; Alan Parker, Evita ; John Sayles, Lone Star


Best Actor
Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire
Ralph Fiennes, The English Patient
Woody Harrelson, The People vs. Larry Flint
Geoffrey Rush, Shine
Billy Bob Thornton, Sling Blade
6th and 7th Place: Nathan Lane, The Birdcage ; William H. Macy, Fargo

Number 8: Eddy Murphy, The Nutty Professor

9th place was a 4-way tie between Mel Gibson, Ransom ; Liam Neeson, Michael Collins, Antonio Banderas, Evita ; Robin Williams, The Birdcage


Best Actress
Brenda Blethyn, Secrets and Lies
Diane Keaton, Marvin's Room
Frances McDormand, Fargo
Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient
Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves
6th and 7th Place: Gina Rowlands, Unhook the Stars ; Madonna, Evita

Places 8 to 9: Meryl Streep, Marvin's Room ; Glenn Close, 101 Dalmatiens

10th place was a tie between Debbie Reynolds, Mother and Barbra Streisand, The Mirror Has Two Faces


Best Supporting Actor
Cuba Gooding, Jr., Jerry Maguire
Armin Mueller-Stahl, Shine
Edward Norton, Primal Fear
Paul Scofield, The Crucible
James Woods, Ghosts of Mississippi
6th and 7th Place: Noah Taylor, Shine ; Hank Azaria, The Birdcage

Places 8 to 10: Samuel L. Jackson, A Time to Kill ; Martin Donovan, The Portrait of a Lady ; Harry Belafonte, Kansas City

Nominee William H. Macy, Fargo got points in the Leading Actor Category


Best Supporting Actress
Joan Allen, The Crucible
Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces
Juliette Binoche, The English patient
Barbara Hershey, The Portrait of a Lady
Courtney Love, The People vs Larry Flint
6th and 7th Place: Renee Zellweger, Jerry Maguire ; Marisa Tomei, Unhook the Stars

Places 8 to 10: Gwen Vertdon, Marvin's Room ; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets and Lies ; Marion Ross, The Evening Star


Best Original Screenplay
Fargo
Lone Star
The People vs. Larry Flint
Secrets and Lies
Shine
6th and 7th Place: Jerry Maguire ; Ridicule

Places 8 to 10: Mother ; Big Night ; Breaking the Waves


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Birdcage
Emma
The English Patient
Sling Blade
Trainspotting
6th and 7th Place: Evita ; Hamlet

Places 8 to 10: The Crucible ; The Portrait of a Lady ; Jude


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