How The Formula Predicts
The 2009 Oscar Nominees

The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00


The Hurt Locker
28.73 pts

Jason Reitman
30.62 pts

Jeff Bridges
20.99 pts

Meryl Streep
19.29 pts

Supp. Actor
Christoph Waltz
31.54 pts

Supp. Actress
29.93 pts

Orig. Screenplay
Hurt Locker
22.63 pts

Up in the Air
32.67 pts

Best Picture
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air

6. An Education
7. Up
8. A Serious Man
9. Star Trek
10. District 9

11th and 12th Place: Nine, Invictus

Nominee The Blind Side stranded on 24th(!) place...

Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
6th and 7th Place: Neill Blomkamp, District 9 ; Clint Eastwood, Invictus

Places 8 to 10: J.J. Abrams, Star Trek ; Lone Scherfig, An Education ; Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
6th and 7th Place: Matt Damon, The Informant! ; Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

Places 8 to 9: Tobey Maguire, Brothers ; Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine

10th place was a tie between: Johnny Depp, Publoc Enemies, Joaquin Phoenix, Two Lovers (Yeah!) and Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
6th and 7th Place: Tilda Swinton, Julia ; Emily Blunt, The Young Victorian

Places 8 to 10: Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones ; Marion Cotillard, Nine ; Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
6th & 7th Place (TIE): Alfred Molina, An Education ; Peter Capaldi, In the Loop ; Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles

Places 9 and 10: Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker ; Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
6th and 7th Place: Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds ; Samantha Morton, The Messenger

8th Place (TIE): Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning ; Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are ; Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. ; Nathalie Portman, Brothers

Nominee Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart was not mentioned by the formula

Best Original Screenplay
500 Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
6th and 7th Place: Avatar ; The Hangover

Places 8 to 10: The White Ribbon ; Broken Embraces ; Sin Nombre

Nominee The Messenger was not mentioned by the formula

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Up in the Air
6th and 7th Place: Fantastic Mr. Fox ; Julie & Julia

Places 8 to 10: Star Trek ; Crazy Heart ; Invictus

See the calculations (in Excel!)

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