How The Formula Predicts
The 2006 Oscar Nominees

The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97


The Departed
53.55 pts

Martin Scorsese
46.44 pts

Forest Whitaker
31.93 pts

Helen Mirren
33.54 pts

Supp. Actor
Eddie Murphy
15.66 pts

Supp. Actress
Jennifer Hudson
24.21 pts

Orig. Screenplay
The Queen
25.29 pts

The Departed
24.65 pts

Best Picture
The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

6th and 7th Place: United 93, Letters from Iwo Jima

Places 8 to 10: Little Children, Pan's Labyrinth, The Devil Wears Prada

Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris, Little Miss Sunshine
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
6th and 7th Place: Bill Condon, Dreamgirls ; Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima

Places 8 to 10: Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth ; Kevin MacDonald, The Last King of Scotland, Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
6th and 7th Place: Sasha Baron Cohen, Borat! ; Gregg Kinnear, Little Miss Sunshine

Places 8 to 10: Aaron Eckhart, Thank You For Smoking ; Will Ferrell, Stranger Than Fiction ; Matt Damon, The Good Shepherd

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
6th and 7th Place: Toni Collette, Little Miss Sunshine ; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Sherrybaby

Places 8 to 10: Beyoncé Knowles, Dreamgirls ; Annette Bening, Running With Scissors ; Laura Dern, Inland Empire

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
6th and 7th Place: Brad Pitt, Babel ; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed

Places 8 to 10: Mark Whalberg, The Departed ; Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland ; Michael Sheen, The Queen

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchet, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
6th and 7th Place (TIE): Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada ; Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration ; Luminita Gheorghiu, The Death of Mr. Lazarescu

Places 9 and 10: Shareeka Epps, Half Nelson ; Lili Taylor, Factotum

Best Original Screenplay
Little Miss Sunshine
Letters From Iwo Jima
The Queen
United 93
6th and 7th Place: Pan's Labyrinth ; Stranger than Fiction

Places 8 to 10: Volver ; The Lives of Others ; The Dead Girl

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Thank You For Smoking
6th and 7th Place: The Devil Wears Prada ; Borat!

Places 8 to 10: The Painted Veil ; A Prairie Home Companion ; Children of Men

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