How The Formula Predicted
The 1998 Oscar Nominees

The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96


Shakespeare in Love
40.58 pts

John Madden
28.20 pts

Ian McKellen
20.99 pts

Cate Blanchett
16.16 pts

Supp. Actor
Billy Bob Thornton
16.77 pts

Supp. Actress
Kathy Bates
17.75 pts

Orig. Screenplay
Shakespeare in Love
31.06 pts

A Simple Plan
11.64 pts

Best Picture
Life is Beautiful
Saving Private Ryan
Shakespeare in Love
The Thin Red Line
The Truman Show

6th and 7th Place: Gods and Monsters ; Elizabeth

Places 8 to 10: Out of Sight ; Waking Ned Devine ; The Horse Whisperer

Best Director
Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful
Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan
John Madden, Shakespeare in Love
Terence Malick, The Thin Red Line
Peter Weir, The Truman Show
6th and 7th Place: Shekar Kapur, Elizabeth ; Steven Soderbergh, Out of Sight

Places 8 to 10: Bill Condon, Gods and Monsters ; Robert Redford, The Horse Whisperer ; John Boorman, The General

Best Actor
Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful
Tom Hanks, Saving Private Ryan
Ian McKellan, Gods and Monsters
Nick Nolte, Affliction
Edward Norton, American History X
6th and 7th Place: Jim Carrey, The Truman Show ; Joseph Fiennes, Shakespeare in Love

Places 8 to 9: Stephen Fry, Wilde ; Michael Caine, Little Voice

10th place was a tie between: Warren Beatty, Bulworth and Robin Williams, Patch Adams

Best Actress
Cate Blanchet, Elizabeth
Fernanda Montenegro, Central Station
Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
Meryl Streep, One True Thing
Emily Watson, Hilary and Jacky
6th and 7th Place: Susan Sarandon, Stepmom ; Jane Horrocks, Little Voice

Places 8 to 10: Cameron Diaz, There's Something About Mary ; Christina Ricci, The Opposite of Sex ; Holly Hunter, Living Out Loud

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, A Civil Action
Ed Harris, The Truman Show
Bill Murray, Rushmore
Geoffrey Rush, Shakespeare in Love
Billy Bob Thornton, A Simple Plan
6th and 7th Place: David Kelly, Waking Ned Devine ; Donald Sutherland, Without Limits

Places 8 to 10: James Coburn, Affliction ; Jeremy Davies, Saving Private Ryan ; Tom Sizemore, Saving Private Ryan

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Primary Colors
Brenda Blethyn, Little Voice
Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love
Rachel Griffiths, Hilary and Jacky
Lynn Redgrave, Gods and Monsters
6th and 7th Place: Joan Allen, Pleasantville ; Sharon Stone, The Mighty

Places 8 to 10: Lisa Kudrow, The Opposite of Sex ; Kimberly Elise, Beloved ; Patricia Clarkson, High Art

Best Original Screenplay
Life is Beautiful
Saving Private Ryan
Shakespeare in Love
The Truman Show
6th and 7th Place: Happiness; The Opposite of Sex

Places 8 to 10: Central Station ; Waking Ned Devine ; Pleasantville

Best Adapted Screenplay
Gods and Monsters
Out of Sight
Primary Colors
A Simple Plan
The Thin Red Line
6th and 7th Place: A Civil Action ; Little Voice

Places 8 to 10: Hilary and Jacky ; Beloved (only 9 titles in this category)

See the calculations (in Excel!)

How To Read The Excell Pages: