How The Formula Predicted
The 2001 Oscar Nominees

The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96


A Beautiful Mind
38.51 pts

Ron Howard
29.64 pts

Russell Crowe
18.38 pts

Sissy Spacek
29.43 pts

Supp. Actor
Ben Kingsley
28.54 pts

Supp. Actress
Jennifer Connelly
18.38 pts

Orig. Screenplay
25.20 pts

A Beautiful Mind
20.27 pts

Best Picture
A Beautiful Mind
Gosford Park
In the Bedroom
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Moulin Rouge

6th and 7th Place: Black Hawk Down ; Mulholland Drive

Places 8 to 10: Memento ; Amelie ; Shrek

Best Director
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
Robert Altman, Gosford Park
Todd Field, In the Bedroom
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
6th and 7th Place: Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge; David Lynch, Mulholland Drive

Places 8 to 10: Christopher Nolan, Memento ; Jean-Pierre Jeunet, Amelie ; Joel Coen, The Man Who Wasn't There

Best Actor
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Gene Hackman, The Royal Tenenbaums
Sean Penn, I Am Sam
Denzel Washington, Training Day
Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
6th and 7th Place : Kevin Spacey, The Shipping News ; Billy Bob Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't There

Places 9 to 10: Ewan McGregor, Moulin Rouge ; Kevin Kline, Life as a House ; John Cameron Mitchell, Hedwig & the Angry Inch

Nominee Will Smith, Ali stranded on 11th place...

Best Actress
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
Judi Dench, Iris
Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge
Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Diary
6th and 7th Place: Nicole Kidman, The Others ; Tilda Swinton, The Deep End

Places 8 to 10: Thora Birch, Ghost World ; Cate Blanchett, Bandits ; Naomi Watts, Mulholland Drive

Best Supporting Actor
Jim Broadbent, Iris
Steve Buscemi, Ghost World
Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast
Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Jon Voight, Ali
6th and 7th Place: Jude Law, A.I. Artificial Intelligence ; Hayden Christensen, Life as a House

Places 8 to 10: Ethan Hawke, Training Day ; Jim Broadbent, Moulin Rouge ; Tony Shaloub, The Man Who Wasn't There

Ian McKellan had the same score as Jude Law, so the formula used the Tie Breaker to determine the fifth place.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind
Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom
Kate Winslet, Iris
6th and 7th Place: Cameron Diaz, Vanilla Sky ; Judi Dench, The Shipping News

Places 8 to 10: Dakota Fanning, I Am Sam; Fionnula Flanagan, The Others ; Emily Watson, Gosford Park

Best Original Screenplay
Gosford Park
Moulin Rouge
The Royal Tenenbaums
6th and 7th Place: Mulholland Drive ; The Man Who Wasn't There

Places 8 to 10: Monster's Ball ; No Man's Land ; The Others

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Mind
Ghost World
In the Bedroom
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
6th and 7th Place: Bridget Jones's Diary ; Black Hawk Down

Places 8 to 9: Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone ; A.I. Artificial Intelligence

10th place was a 4-way tie between: Iris, Hedwig & the Angry Inch, Last Orders and Lantana

See the calculations (in Excel!)

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