How The Formula Predicted
The 2003 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Return of the King
55.09 pts


Director
Peter Jackson
42.81 pts


Actor
Bill Murray
24.10 pts


Actress
Charlize Theron
19.38 pts


Supp. Actor
Tim Robbins
19.49 pts


Supp. Actress
Renee Zellweger
20.49 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Lost in Translation
21.03 pts


Adaptation
Mystic River
18.88 pts


Best Picture
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

6th and 7th Place: Cold Mountain, In America

Places 8 to 10: American Splendor, The Last Samurai, The Station Agent


Best Director
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit
6th and 7th Place: Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain ; Jim Sheridan, In America

Places 8 to 10: Edward Zwick, The Last Samurai ; Robert Pulcini & Shari Springer Berman, American Splendor ; Fernando Mereilles, City of God


Best Actor
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River
6th and 7th Place: Peter Dinklage, The Station Agent ; Tom Cruise, The Last Samurai

Places 8 to 10: Russell Crowe, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World ; Jack Black, School of Rock ; Billy Bob Thornton, Bad Santa


Best Actress
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Wale Rider
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
Charlize Theron, Monster
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen
6th and 7th Place: Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation ; Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol.1

Places 8 to 10: Samantha Morton, In America ; Scarlett Johansson, Girl With a Pearl Earring ; Hope Davis, American Splendor


Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Peter Sarsgaard, Shattered Glass
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
6th and 7th Place: Albert Finney, Big Fish ; William H. Macy, Seabiscuit

Places 8 to 9: Chris Cooper, Seabiscuit ; Djimon Hounsou, In America

10th place was a tie between: Andy Serkis and Sean Astin, both from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bello, The Cooler
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
6th and 7th Place: Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent* ; Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog

Places 8 to 10: Emma Bolger, In America ; Laura Linney, Mystic River ; Melissa Leo, 21 Grams

* Patricia Clarkson's The Station Agent performance ended on 5th place, but it was disqualified from the top 5 since her Pieces of April perfomance ranked higher. At the Oscars an actor can only receive one nomination per category


Best Original Screenplay
The Barbarian Invasions
Dirty Pretty Things
In America
Lost in Translation
The Station Agent
6th and 7th Place: 21 Grams ; Finding Nemo

Places 8 to 10: Bend It Like Beckham ; The Last Samurai ; Kill Bill, Vol. 1


Best Adapted Screenplay
American Splendor
Cold Mountain
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
6th and 7th Place: City of God ; Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Places 8 to 10: The Secret Lives of Dentists ; Big Fish ; Shattered Glass


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