How The Formula Predicted
The 2004 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Sideways
59.46 pts


Director
Alexander Payne
38.52 pts


Actor
TIE
Jamie Foxx
Paul Giamatti
20.49 pts


Actress
Imelda Staunton
24.21 pts


Supp. Actor
Thomas Hayden Church
29.93 pts


Supp. Actress
Virginia Madsen
25.21 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Eternal Sunshine
23.09 pts


Adaptation
Sideways
44.42 pts


Best Picture
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

6th and 7th Place: Hotel Rwanda, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Places 8 to 10: Kinsey, The Incredibles, Vera Drake


Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Alexander Payne, Sideways
6th and 7th Place: Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind ; Terry George, Hotel Rwanda

Places 8 to 10: Michael Mann, Collateral ; Mike Leigh, Vera Drake ; Bill Condon, Kinsey


Best Actor
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
6th and 7th Place: Liam Neeson, Kinsey ; Jim Carrey, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Places 8 to 10: Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside ; Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby ; Kevin Kline, DeLovely


Best Actress
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
6th and 7th Place (TIE): Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. 2 ; Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland

Places 8 to 10: Nicole Kidman, Birth ; Scarlett Johansson, A Love Song for Bobby Long ; Julie Delpi, Before Sunset


Best Supporting Actor
Thomas Hayden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
James Garner, The Notebook
Clive Owen, Closer
6th and 7th Place: David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol. 2 ; Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland

Places 8 to 10: Alan Alda, The Aviator ; Phil Davis, Vera Drake ; Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey


Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer
6th and 7th Place: Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate ; Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda

Place 8: Regina King, Ray ; Sharron Warren, Ray ; Julie Christie, Finding Neverland


Best Original Screenplay
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Ray
6th and 7th Place: Kinsey ; The Sea Inside

Places 8 to 10: Garden State ; Vera Drake ; Collateral


Best Adapted Screenplay
Closer
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways
6th and 7th Place: Before Sunset ; Mean Girls

Places 8 to 10: A Very Long Engagement ; The Chorus ; The Phantom of the Opera


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