How The Formula Predicts
The 2007 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
No Country for Old Men
63.72 pts


Director
Joel & Ethan Coen
45.52 pts


Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis
30.93 pts


Actress
Julie Christie
29.93 pts


Supp. Actor
Javier Bardem
26.82 pts


Supp. Actress
Amy Ryan
25.71 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Juno
29.27 pts


Adaptation
No Country for Old Men
31.61 pts


Best Picture
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

6th and 7th Place: Into the Wild ; Atonement

Places 8 to 10: American Gangster ; Sweeney Todd ; Hairspray


Best Director
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
6th and 7th Place: Sean Penn, Into the Wild ; Joe Wright, Atonement

Places 8 to 10: Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd ; Sarah Polley, Away from Her ; Paul Greengrass, The Bourne Ultimatum


Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
6th and 7th Place: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild ; James McAvoy, Atonement

Places 8 to 10: Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd ; Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening ; Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah


Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno
6th and 7th Place: Keira Knightley, Atonement ; Laura Linney, The Savages

Places 8 to 10: Jodie Foster, The Brave One ; Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd ; Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding


Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
6th and 7th Place: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War ; John Travolta, Hairspray

Places 8 to 9: Ben Foster, 3:10 to Yuma ; Vlad Ivanov, 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days

10th place was a four-way tie between: Brian Cox, Zodiac ; Jeff Daniels, The Lookout ; Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood and J.K. Simmons, Juno


Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
6th and 7th Place: Catherine Keener, Into the Wild ; Kelly Macdonald, No Country for Old Men

Places 8 and 9: Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War ; Emily Mortimer, Lars and the Real Girl

10th place was a six-way tie between: Jennifer Garner, Juno ; Taraji P. Henson, Talk to Me ; Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding ; Leslie Mann, Knocked Up ; Samantha Morton, Control and Emmanualle Seigner, La Vie en Rose


Best Original Screenplay
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
6th and 7th Place: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead ; 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days

Places 8 to 10: Knocked Up ; Eastern Promises ; American Gangster


Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
6th and 7th Place: Zodiac ; The Kite Runner

Places 8 to 10: Charlie Wilson's War ; Lust, Caution ; Away From Her


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