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Dates are no longer up to date. The Formula however has been adjusted in february 2024.
Index Importance of the Event in order to predict the Oscar Nominees
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December 2010 |
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| Dec 1 | Satellite Award Nominations
Every nomination in the Drama categories : 1 point. The nominees for Best Comedy Or Musical or Best Foreign Language Film receive only 0.375 points, unless the film is nominated for director (then it’s 1 point again) A nomination in the other Comedy categories is worth only 0.375 points, unless the comedy is nominated for director (then it’s 1 point). The nominees for Best Animated (or Mixed Media) Picture receive no points, unless the film is nominated for director (then it’s 1 point). |
| Dec 2 | National Board of Review Awards
Winners : 1,5 points. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points. |
| Dec 4 | European Film Awards
Winners: 3 points The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The screenwriter of the Best Picture Winner gets 2 points extra. The people's choice awards winners receive no points. |
| Dec 13 | Broadcast Film Critics Association
This award is only important for the Best Picture Category and the Writing Categories |
| Dec 10 | AFI Film Awards
Each film: 1 point. (Best Picture Category) |
| Dec 12 | L.A. Film Critics Association Awards
Winners : 3 points, first runners-up : 2 points. The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points. The screenwriter of the Best Picture Winner gets 2 points extra. |
| Dec 13 | New York Film Critics
Circle Awards
Winners : 3 points, first runners-up : 2 points. The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points. The screenwriter of the Best Picture Winner gets 2 points extra. |
| Dec 13 | Southeastern Film Critics
Association
Winners : 1.5 points. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points. |
| Dec 14 | San Diego Film Critics
Society Awards
Winners : 1.5 points. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points. |
| Dec 14 | Golden Globes Nominations
Every nomination in the Drama categories : 2 points. The nominees for Best Comedy Or Musical receive only 0.75 points, unless the film is nominated for director (then it’s 2 points again) A nomination in the other Comedy categories is worth only 0.75 points, unless the comedy is nominated for director (then it’s 2 point). The nominees for Best Animated Picture or Best Foreign Language Fims receive no points, unless the film is nominated for director (then it’s 2 points). The directors of the films nominated for screenplay get 2 points, the producers get 1. If a film is nominated for screenplay, but not for best film (drama or comedy), the screenwriter receives 1 point extra. If a director has a Golden Globe nomination, and he/she was never before nominated for an Oscar, then the producer gets 2 points extra. In the supporting categories: 1. actors and actresses who were nominated for an Oscar in the past but never won (for acting), receive 2 points extra. 2. actors and actresses who were nominated for an Oscar in the past and their film has a Golden Globe nomination for Best Director, receive one point extra. 3. actors and actresses who won an Oscar in the past and their film has a Golden Globe nomination for Best Director, receive one point extra and they will profit from the Mery Streep Rule, if they have at least one other mention from an organisation mentionned on this calendar. These rules don’t apply for leading roles. |
| Dec 16 | Screen Actors Guild
- Award Nominations Announced
Each nominated actor : 4 points In the leading categories: 1. The score of every leading actor/actress who isn't nominated for the SAG (individual awards only) nor the Golden Globes, and never received an Oscar nomination before gets divided by 3.3. 2. Leading actors/actresses of the Best Ensemble nominees, who received one prior Oscar nomination (no matter if they won or not), receive 2 points extra. In the supporting categories: 1. Every supporting actor/actress who was nominated for the Golden Globes and the SAG-Ensemble Award, but was never before nominated for an Oscar, receives 1 points extra 2. Every supporting actor/actress who is nominated for an individual SAG Award and the SAG-Ensemble Award, but was never before nominated for an Oscar, receives 1 points extra 3. The score of every supporting actor/actress who wasn't nominated for the Golden Globes nor the SAG (via an individual or an ensemble award), gets divided by 3.3, unless they profit by The Meryl Streep Rule. The producers of the Best Ensemble nominees receive 3 points, the directors 1 point. |
| Dec 17 | Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Winners : 1.5 points. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points. |
| Dec 17 | Chicago Film Critics Association Nominations
Each nomination : 1 point. |
| Dec 19 | Satellite Awards Ceremony
Winners : 1.5 points instead of their previous GS nomination points. The winners of the leading actor and actress in a Comedy Or Musical receive only 0.8 points, unless the comedy is nominated for director (then it’s 1.5 points). The winner of the Best Animated (or Mixed Media) Picture receives no points, unless the film is nominated for director or has a WGA nomination (then it’s 1.5 points). The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points. |
| Dec ? | Chicago Film Critics
Association Awards
Winners : 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points. Winners of the best promising actor and/or actress receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting) |
| Dec ? | Florida Film Critics
Circle Awards.
Winners : 1.5 points. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points. |
| Dec 27 | Online Film Critics Society Awards
Nominations
Nominees for Picture, Director and screenplay: 1 point. Nominees for acting: 0 point. |
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January 2011 |
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| Jan 3 | Online Film Critics Society Awards
Winners : 1.5 points instead of their previous OFCS nomination points. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points. Winners of the best breakthrough performance receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting) |
| Jan 4 | Producers Guild of America -
Award Nominations
Each nominated producer : 3 points The directors of the nominated films receive 1 point. |
| Jan 4 | Writers Guild of America - Award Nominations
Each nominated screenwriter : 4 points If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the PGA, then the producers and the directors receive 1 point. If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the DGA, then the producers receive 2 points, and the directors 1 point. If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the SAG, then the screenwriters receive 1,5 points extra. |
| Jan 5 | People’s Choice Awards
Favorite Motion Picture Winner: 1.5 points Other awards are not taken in consideration. |
| Jan 6 | Cinema Audio Award Nominations
A Guild nomination is worth 0.33 points in the best picture category and 0.222 points in the best director category. |
| Jan 10 | Denver Film Criticis
Society Awards
Best Picture Winner : 1,5 points The other Best Picture nominees: 1 point. |
| Jan 8 | National Society of Film Critics Awards
Winners : 1.5 points, first runners-up : 1 point. The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points. |
| Jan 10 | Directors Guild of America
- Award Nominations
Each nominated director : 4 points If a film is nominated for both the DGA and the PGA, then the producers receive 2 points. If a film is nominated for the DGA, but not for the PGA, then the producers receive 4 points. If a film is nominated for the DGA, but not for the WGA, then the screenwriters receive 4 points. If a film is nominated for the PGA, but not for the DGA nor the WGA, then the screenwriters receive 2 points. Every actor in every category that received points for a film that has a DGA-nomination, receives 1 point extra. |
| Jan 11 | American Society of Cinematographers Award Nominations
A Guild nomination is worth 0.33 points in the best picture category and 0.222 points in the best director category. |
| Jan 14 | American Cinema Editors - Eddie Nominations
A Guild nomination is worth 0.33 points in the best picture category and 0.222 points in the best director category. |
| Jan 14 | Broadcast Film Critics Association : Award Ceremony
Winners : 1.5 points, first Runners-up: 1 points The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra. The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points. Winners of the best young actor and/or young actress receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting) |
| Jan 16 | Golden Globes Ceremony
Winners : 3 points instead of their previous GG nomination points. The leading actor and actress in a Comedy Or Musical: a. if the film is nominated for Best Director, then they receive 3 points b. If not, they receive only 1 point. But the actor or actress can receive extra points if he/she doesn’t profit by the Meryl Streep Rule and: b1. if the film’s director received a Golden Globe Nomination in the Directing Category before: 2 points extra. b2. if the film’s director received a Golden Globe Nomination in the Directing Category before AND the actor or actress has at least two prior Oscar nominations for a leading performance: 3 points extra. The screenwriter of the Best Picture Drama Winner receives 2 points extra. The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra. The director of the Best Picture - Drama Winner receives 1.5 points extra. The producers of the films that won best actor, actress and screenplay receive 1 point extra. (Those points are not cumulative: if a film won all these awards, the producer will still get 1 point.) The directors of the films that won best drama actor, drama actress and screenplay receive 1 point extra. (Those points are not cumulative: if a film won all these awards, the director will still get 1 point.) The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points. The winner of the Best Animated Picture receives no points, unless the film is nominated for director or has a WGA nomination (then it’s 3 points). |
| Jan 18 | BAFTA Award Nominations (U.K.)
Each nomination : 1 point. The nominees for Best Animated Picture or Best Foreign Language Fims receive no points, unless the film is nominated for director (then it’s 1 point). Foreign language films in regular categories get 2 points instead of 1. Best Picture nominees that are not nominated for the Producers Guild Award receive 1 point extra. Best Director nominees that are not nominated for the Directors Guild Award receive 1 point extra. Best Screenplay nominees that are not nominated for the Writers Guild Award receive 1 point extra. Acting nominees who haven’t received any other nomination/win from other groups: their scores are divided by 3.3 (See the rules of the Screen Actors Guild Nominations) BAFTA Leading Actor and Leading Actress nominees who have received at least one nomination/win from an other group than BAFTA, SAG or Golden Globes: Their scores are no longer divided by 3.3 (See the rules of the Screen Actors Guild Nominations) BAFTA Leading Actor and Leading Actress nominees who 1. are not nominated for the Screen Actors Guild Award 2. are nominated for movies that have at least 0.375 points in the Best Picture chart OR at least 1 point in Collumn D from the Best Picture Chart Receive 2 points extra. BAFTA Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress nominees who 1. are not nominated for the Screen Actors Guild Award and/or the Golden Globes 2. are BAFTA nominated for movies that are nominated for Best Leading Actor and/or Leading Actress at the Screen Actors Guild Receive 2 points extra AND their scores are no longer divided by 3.3 (See the rules of the Screen Actors Guild Nominations) |
| Jan 18 | Denver Film Critics Society Awards
Every Acting nomination/win that: is for a films nominated for the DGA Award AND is not nominated for the BAFTA: 2 points. + their scores are no longer divided by 3.3 (See the rules of the Screen Actors Guild Nominations) |
| Jan 18 | First Correction
See The Formula’s Most Important Rule |
| Jan 18 | Second Correction
The amount of Best Picture Awards and Nominations* of a director’s film will be added to the director’s score if: (* The considered awards are PGA nominations, DGA nominations, SAG-Ensemble nominations, NBR Top 10, Broadcast Film Critics Top 10, Dallas Film Critics Top 10, Southeastern Film Critics Top 10, The AFI Top 10, Best Picture Nominations from the Golden Globes (drama+ comedy), Online Film Critics Society, BAFTA, Chicago Film Critics Association, Denver Film Critics Society, Best Picture winners of the LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC, European Film Awards, Florida Film Critics, Satellites (drama only) and the San Diego Film Critics.) |
| Jan 18 | Third Correction
In the Supporting Actor and Actress categories: Scores of actors who are not divided by 3.3, will be divided by ((their total amount of awards/nominatins (Column B)) + 0.5) if : 1. the movies those actors are nominated for don’t have any points in the Best Picture Category: not in Column B and not in Column D. (more info about those collumns here.) AND 2. the actors have less than 4 prior Oscar nominations. In the Leading Actor and Actress categories: Scores of actors who are not divided by 3.3, will lose 1 point if the movies those actors are nominated for don’t have any points in the Best Picture Category: not in Column B and not in Column D. (more info about those collumns here.) |
| Jan 22 | The End of Sijmen’s Oscar Experiment |
| Jan 22 | Producers Guild Awards |
| Jan 25 | ACADEMY AWARD NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCEMENT |
| Jan 29 | Directors Guild Awards |
| Jan 30 | Screen Actors Guild Awards |
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February 2011 |
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| Feb 5 | Art Directors Guild Awards | Feb 5 | Writers Guild Awards |
| Feb 13 | BAFTA Awards (U.K.) |
| Feb 13 | American Society of Cinematographers Awards |
| Feb 19 | American Cinema Editors - Eddie Awards |
| Feb 19 | Cinema Audio Awards |
| Feb 22 | Costume Designers Guild Awards |
| Feb 27 | ACADEMY AWARDS CEREMONY |
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