Current Predictions

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Standings of January 21, 2026


TRACKED AWARDS
(so far)


(COMPLETE)


Cinema Audio Award Nominations


European Film Awards


Denver Film Criticis Society Awards


Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations


Golden Globes Ceremony


Producers Guild Award Nomination


American Society of Cinematographers Award Nominations


Directors Guild Award Nominations


Screen Actors Guild The Actor Nominations


The Critics Choice Awards


National Society of Film Critics Awards


Florida Film Critics Circle Awards


Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association


Satellite Award Nominations


San Diego Film Critics Society Awards


Southeastern Film Critics Association


Chicago Film Critics Association Award


Chicago Film Critics Association Nominations


Golden Globes Nominations


L.A. Film Critics Association Awards


The Critics Choice Award Nominations


AFI Film Awards


National Board of Review Awards


New York Film Critics Circle Awards


For More info see
The Scoring System
Note: The Experiment predicts the nominees, not the winners.
(Nominations are math - winners are magic.)


Best Picture

# Film B C D E F G
1. One Battle After Another 39.7 25 16 11 1 64.09
2. Sinners 20.1 14 13 9 1 40.37
3. Marty Supreme 15.925 12 12 6 1 34.085
4. Hamnet 17 10 10 5 1 32.63
5. Sentimental Value 16.6 11 8 1 1 28.77
6. Frankenstein 12 6 8 7 1 26.05
7. It Was Just an Accident 16.7 16 5 1 25.4
8. The Secret Agent 10.375 10 3 1 16.795
9. Bugonia 5.925 5 5 3 1 15.395
10. Train Dreams 7.8 6 8 2 12.52
-------------------------------------
11. Weapons 4 2 3 2 1 10.92
12. No Other Choice 2.925 4 3 1 9.225
13. F1: The Movie 3 1 2 3 1 9.15


Legend:
B. - Points based on results from the Award Calendar.
C. - Number of times the film received points.
D. - Number of Best Picture wins and nominations (see the Calculating the Best Picture Category for the list of eligible awards).
E. - Number of Guild Award nominations (see Calculating the Best Picture Category for eligible awards).
F. - Score scaling. 1 = points are not divided and 3 bonus points are added; empty = standard scoring. (see the Final Score Scaling)
G. - Total Points: if E=1 then B + 3 + ((C - 1) x 0.02) + (D x 1.08) + (E x 0.33) if E=0 then B / 2.5 + ((C - 1) x 0.02)
+ (D x 1.08) + (E x 0.33)




Best Director

Name / Film B C D E F G
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another 27.7 18 10 11 1 38.529
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners 19.6 13 9 1 25.93
3. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident 18.3 16 1 1 23.315
4. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet 14.5 9 2 5 1 20.198
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme 10.8 7 1 6 1 16.148
-------------------------------------
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value 10.6 7 4 1 1 15.888
7. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein 9 5 7 1 13.998
8. Kleber Mendonca Filho, The Secret Agent 5 6 2 1 9.255
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia 1.8 2 3 1 5.577
10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice 2.3 2 1 5.411


Legend:
B. - Points based on results from the Award Calendar.
C. - Number of times the film received points.
D. - Number of wins for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, from a selected set of major awards only (see the Calculating the Best Director Category for the list of eligible awards).
E. - Number of Guild Award nominations (see Calculating the Best Picture Category for eligible awards).
F. - Score scaling. 1 = points are not divided and 3 bonus points are added; empty = standard scoring. (see the Final Score Scaling)
G. - Total Points: if E=1 then B + 3 + ((C - 1) x 0.111) + (D x 0.35) + (E x 0.222) if E=0 then B / 2.5 + ((C - 1) x 0.111) + (D x 0.35) + (E x 0.222)




Best Actor

# Name / Film B C D
1 Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another 16 9 16,88
2 Michael B. Jordan, Sinners 14 8 14,77
3 Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme 13,375 8 14,145
4 Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent 12 7 12,66
5 Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon 10,625 6 11,175
---------------------------------------------------
6 Jesse Plemons, Bugonia 5,125 3 5,345
7 Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams 4 3 4,22
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein 4 3 4,22
9 George Clooney, Jay Kelly 1,125 2 1,235
10 Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine 1 1 1
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 1 1 1


Legend:
B. - Points based on results from the Award Calendar.
C. - Number of times the film received points.
D. - Total Points: B + ((C - 1) x 0.11)




Best Actress

# Name / Film B C D
1 Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You 19,875 11 20,975
2 Jessie Buckley, Hamnet 18,5 10 19,49
3 Chase Infinity, One Battle After Another 8 4 8,33
4 Emma Stone, Bugonia 7,125 4 7,455
5 Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value 6 3 6,22
---------------------------------------------------
6 Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love 4 3 4,22
7 Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue 3,75 2 3,86
8 Eva Victor, Sorry Baby 2,375 2 2,485
9 Tessa Thompson, Hedda 2 2 2,11
10 Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good 1,125 2 1,235


Legend:
B. - Points based on results from the Award Calendar.
C. - Number of times the film received points.
D. - Total Points: B + ((C - 1) x 0.11)




Best Supporting Actor

# Name / Film B C D
1 Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another 23 13 24,32
2 Sean Penn, One Battle After Another 16,5 10 17,49
3 Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value 15,5 8 16,27
4 Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein 15 9 15,88
5 Paul Mescal, Hamnet 14,5 8 15,27
---------------------------------------------------
6 Miles Caton, Sinners 7,5 4 7,83
7 Delroy Lindo, Sinners 4,5 4 4,83
8 Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly 2 1 2
9 Andrew Scott, Blue Moon 2 1 0,606060606


Legend:
B. - Points based on results from the Award Calendar.
C. - Number of times the film received points.
D. - Total Points: B + ((C - 1) x 0.11)




Best Supporting Actress

# Name / Film B C D
1 Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another 21 11 22,1
2 Amy Madigan, Weapons 15,5 8 16,27
3 Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners 11,5 7 12,16
4 Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value 10 7 10,66
5 Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good 9 4 9,33
---------------------------------------------------
6 Odessa A'Zion, Marty Supreme 7 4 7,33
7 Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine 5,5 3 5,72
8 Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value 4,5 3 4,72
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners 4,5 3 4,72
10 Nina Hoss, Hedda 2,5 2 2,61


Legend:
B. - Points based on results from the Award Calendar.
C. - Number of times the film received points.
D. - Total Points: B + ((C - 1) x 0.11)




Best Original Screenplay

# Film B C D E
1 It Was Just An Accident 15,4 10 7 18,93
2 Sinners 13,5 8 13 18,89
3 Marty Supreme 12 6 12 16,8
4 Sentimental Value 9,8 6 9 13,55
5 The Secret Agent 4 5 7 6,93
----------------------------------
6 Weapons 3 2 3 4,17
7 Sorry, Baby 3 2 3,12
8 F1 2 1 2 2,7
9 Blue Moon 2 2 1 2,47
10 Jay Kelly 1 1 4 2,4


Legend:
B. - Points based on results from the Award Calendar.
C. - Number of times the film received points.
D. - Number of Best Picture wins and nominations (see the Calculating the Writing Categories for the list of eligible awards).
E. - Total Points: B + ((C - 1) x 0.12) + (D x 0,35)




Best Adapted Screenplay

# Film B C D G
1 One Battle After Another 20,5 11 16 27,3
2 Hamnet 7 5 9 10,63
3 Train Dreams 6,5 5 8 9,78
4 Bugonia 5,5 4 5 7,61
5 Frankenstein 4 1 5 5,75
----------------------------------
6 No Other Choice 3,8 4 3 5,21
7 Wake Up Dead Man 1 1 1 1,35


Legend:
B. - Points based on results from the Award Calendar.
C. - Number of times the film received points.
D. - Number of Best Picture wins and nominations (see the Calculating the Writing Categories for the list of eligible awards).
E. - Total Points: B + ((C - 1) x 0.12) + (D x 0,35)


Past Predictions by the Formula:

25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17